Statistics a page in reserve if needed - calculations incomplete
Aim
To calculate the number of patients in Ross 65 + with dementia.
That done, attempt to find those between 40 and 64 with dementia.
Prelim data:
the number of carers in 2011 was 5,430,016 [source 1/12] and 10% care for someone with dementia [ - 6/12 - ] 543,000.
1 Provisional outcome
persons aged 65+ years with dementia. 65+WD
the 0.79% figure in 1.3 is calculated at 2.5
2 Broad County stats and calcs
- Herefordshire has a population of 187,200, with a higher than average representation of olderpeople. here p 6
- In 2014/15, 1,428 people in Herefordshire had a diagnosis of dementia (GP Quality Outcomes Framework data, March 2015). here p 34
- 187200/1428 = 0.79%
- By 2030, it is projected that Herefordshire will have around 5,000 persons aged 65+ years with dementia, an increase of 63 per cent from 3,100 in 2015. ibid
- Check - 3100 is a big leap from 1428. 217%
- Beware - Item 3 = people, Item 7 = persons aged 65+ years with dementia. increase of 63 per cent doesn't feel right
- Even if the increase in 2016 is only 50%, the county figure is > 4,500 in 2016.
- Spread them around c 25 practices and each will have > c 180 persons aged 65+ years with dementia. 65+WD
- GP Practices - Alton Street - 10,537 patients Pendeen 8,077 patients
- 0.79% of 10537 = 83 patients 65+WD 0.79% of 8077 = 63 patients 65+WD
2.20
Results dependent on source:
- The current (mid-2015) estimate of the county's resident population is 188,100 people.
- The county has an older age structure than England & Wales as a whole, with 23 per cent of the population aged 65 years or above (43,900 people), compared to 18 per cent nationally. source
2.21
The current estimate of the county’s resident population is 186,100; p 6 here
1 in every 14 of the population aged 65 years and over has dementia in 2015, here = 7.24 %
7.24 % of 43900 = 3178 cf 3100 in 7 above
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3 Of potential use elsewhere:
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Whilst the number of people aged 65+ living in England and Wales has increased by 19 per cent, in Herefordshire it has grown by 25 per cent – from 33,700 to 42,000. Most notably, the number of people aged 85+ in the county has increased by 43 per cent, from 4,000 to 5,700. Nationally this rise has been 29 per cent.
p 27 here
The number aged 65-84 is projected to grow at a similar rate as during the last decade (average of two per cent a year), but the number aged 85+ will rise even more rapidly (average of six per cent compared to just under four per cent a year since 2001).
By 2031, there are projected to be between 50,300 and 50,500 65-84 year-olds (39 per cent more than in 2013), whilst the number age 85+ will more than double to 11,700.
pp 27/8 ibid
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The average prevalence of dementia for
Herefordshire is higher than the national
average but the difference is not statistically
significant. There is very little variability in the
prevalence of dementia across the county with
a difference of less than 10 per cent observed
between the lowest value in the Golden Valley
and the highest at Leominster.
........
Managing other risks such as depression
diabetes, and poor care environments will also
help people with dementia to live healthier
lives, which in turn improves the lives of
their families and carers.
p 28 here
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National End of Life Care Profiles for Local Authorities - HFDS
p 4 of gives 320 deaths ( ONS Mortality Data 2008-10) per place of death. [[[ 10% died at home ]]]
note 33 p3
Of all deaths, percentage that die from Alzheimer’s disease, dementia or senility listed as either the underlying cause of death or as a contributory cause of death.
. . average annual for 2008-10. ONS
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Healthwatch Herefordshire
p 1 55,000 people over 60 who currently live in the county.
p 3 an estimated 3,000 people with dementia
(two-thirds of whom are undiagnosed) in HFDS
A DMC for Ross Home page here